A Decade of Transformation (2015–2025)
Over the past ten years, Bergen County’s single-family housing market has undergone dramatic shifts. In the mid-2010s it was relatively balanced, but the post-2020 pandemic era saw an extreme seller’s market with record-low supply and surging prices. Now in late 2025, conditions are transitioning back toward equilibrium, though inventory remains historically low. Below, we dive deep into the data – from sales volumes and inventory to prices and buyer competition – and then forecast what’s ahead in the next 1, 2, 5, and 10 years.
Sales Volume and Inventory Crunch
Bergen County single-family home sales per year (blue bars, left axis) vs. active listings (red line, right axis). Notice the surge in sales in 2020–2021 alongside a steep drop in inventory, followed by a sharp fall-off in sales through 2023 and a partial inventory recovery by 2025.
Sales Volume: Annual sales of single-family homes climbed to an all-time high in 2021 when 8,405 homes sold[1], fueled by 2020’s pandemic buying frenzy and rock-bottom interest rates. This was about 17% higher than the ~7,163 sales in 2019[2]. However, sales activity then plummeted as mortgage rates rose – 2023 saw only about 5,066 sales, the lowest in a decade[3]. For example, August 2021 had 939 closings, versus only 579 in August 2023[4]. This collapse in transaction volume (−40% from 2021 to 2023) reflects many buyers being priced out and many would-be sellers holding off due to unfavorable conditions (often called “rate lock-in,” where homeowners don’t want to give up their ultra-low mortgage rates).
Inventory Levels: Housing supply has been the critical driver. Active listings were on a steady decline from 2015 through the pandemic. In September 2019 there were ~3,000 homes actively for sale, but by September 2023 only about 900 were on the market[5] – an astonishing drop in supply. This severe inventory crunch was due to years of under-building and homeowners staying put, and it intensified when COVID hit (many sellers withdrew listings in 2020). Inventory hit record lows in 2022–2023, bottoming out around ~900 active listings in late 2023[6]. The result was an extremely tight market. Only in 2024–2025 did supply show a modest rebound: by September 2025 active listings had increased back to about 1,714 – still barely half of pre-2020 norms, but a 71% jump from the 2023 trough[5]. This recent rise suggests buyers have a bit more choice now than in the ultra-tight 2021 market.
Months of Inventory: A key metric combining supply and demand is months of inventory (how many months to sell current listings at the recent sales pace). Historically ~5–6 months is considered a balanced market. Bergen County was near that in 2018–2019 (around 4–6 months supply) but then plunged to <3 months by late 2020, and an incredible ~1 month in late 2021[7] – meaning virtually everything listed was selling immediately. Throughout 2022 and 2023, inventory hovered around 2–3 months of supply[8], indicating a strong seller’s market persisted. Only by 2025 has this measure started to recover: in the spring of 2025 months of inventory rose to ~5 months[9], the highest since 2015, as more listings came on and sales slowed. Even in late 2025 it’s about 4 months – still slightly a seller’s market, but far more balanced than the frenzied 2021 era.
Soaring Prices and Shifting Price Brackets
Median single-family sale price in Bergen County by year. Home values stayed roughly flat in the mid-$400Ks from 2015–2018, then climbed, with especially steep gains from 2020 onward.
Home Price Explosion: Perhaps the most striking trend is the surge in prices. The median single-family sale price in Bergen was around $495,000 in 2018[10], after years of modest 3–5% annual gains typical of the mid-2010s. By 2019 it was ~$497K – essentially flat[11]. But once the pandemic home-buying boom hit, prices took off. The median jumped to $560,000 in 2020, then $615,000 in 2021, and kept rising to $660,000 in 2022[12][13]. Even as sales slowed in 2022–2023, prices kept defying gravity due to lack of supply. By 2023 the median reached ~$690,000, and in 2024 it was around $766,500[14] – roughly +55% higher than pre-pandemic (2019). As of 2025, the median sale price is about $825,000-$850,000[15], marking an astonishing ~70% increase from 2019 levels. In fact, Bergen County’s home values appreciated so fast that they far outpaced income growth, creating a serious affordability challenge.
Price Bracket Shift: The entire distribution of home sales by price has shifted dramatically upward. In 2015–2019, a substantial number of homes sold under $400K; for example, in 2019 there were nearly 2,000 sales below $400,000, roughly 28% of all transactions. But by 2024, after years of price inflation, sub-$400K sales were almost extinct – only ~74 homes (≈1.5%) sold under $400K in all of 2024. In other words, the entry-level price point has effectively vanished for single-family houses. Meanwhile, the high end has expanded: in 2019 only 8.7% of homes (620 sales) sold for $1M+, but in 2024 a record 1,387 homes were $1M+ – about 27.6% of all sales. The luxury segment above $1M went from a niche to over a quarter of the market. This reflects both appreciation (many homes that were $700K-$800K are now worth over $1M) and continued demand from affluent buyers. It also underscores the shrinking middle: the median price crossing $700K means many “mid-range” buyers are being priced into higher brackets or out of the market entirely.
Affordability Concerns: These price increases, combined with rising mortgage rates, have made affordability a key issue. A buyer in 2020 could get a 30-year loan around 3%; by 2023–2024 rates were ~7%[16]. That nearly doubles the monthly payment for the same home price. As one analysis noted, a household that could afford a $600K home at 3% interest might only afford ~$450K at today’s rates[16]. This squeeze explains why first-time and moderate-income buyers have pulled back – not for lack of desire, but due to budget limits. Many younger buyers have shifted to condos/townhouses or looked in less expensive counties, while wealthier and cash buyers continue to compete for the limited single-family supply. It’s also worth noting New Jersey’s property taxes are the highest in the nation (avg ~2.2% of home value), which further strains affordability[17]. Despite these headwinds, prices have not meaningfully fallen; instead, the market adjusted via lower sales volume. Owners are in strong positions (most aren’t forced to sell and many have low-rate mortgages), so few discounts occur – buyers who remain in the game have had to meet the high price points.
Market Competition and Speed: Still Elevated
One might expect that with such high prices and higher interest rates, the market would cool off substantially in terms of competition. It has cooled from the absolute peak frenzy, but by historical standards it’s still very competitive. Homes generally sell quickly and often above the asking price, though not as universally as in 2021.
Days on Market (DOM): Back in 2015–2018, the typical home sat on the market for 50–70 days (median) before selling[18]. Buyers had time to deliberate. That changed drastically post-2020. By 2021–2022, homes were routinely selling in under 2 weeks on median[19][20] – essentially as soon as they were listed, they went under contract (often after a single weekend of showings). This year, 2025, has seen a slight relaxation: median DOM has crept up to around 2–3 weeks in recent months[21][22]. Similarly, the average DOM in NJ rose to ~43 days (from 34 days a year prior)[23]. So buyers today have a bit more breathing room than during the pandemic spike, but it’s still a fast-moving market – well-priced homes in desirable areas can still go in days. In the entry and mid-level segments (which remain in short supply), turnover is fastest – e.g. ~$600K-$800K homes average under 30 days on market[24] – whereas multi-million-dollar luxury homes may take a few months to find the right buyer[25].
Bidding Wars and Sale-to-List Price: A strong indicator of competition is the ratio of sale price to asking price. In normal times (2015–2019), homes sold for around 96–98% of the list price on average – meaning buyers often negotiated a few percent off. That dynamic flipped in 2020-2022. At the peak, over half of listings were getting multiple offers and selling above asking[26]. In spring 2022, for instance, the average sale was 103–104% of list price in Bergen County – houses commonly fetched tens of thousands over asking. Even as of mid-2024, during the spring market the average sale-to-list was about 104%, a new high. This has started to moderate: by fall 2024 and 2025 the ratio dipped slightly, hovering around 100–102% on average. According to NJ Realtors data, about 51% of homes statewide are still selling above list as of 2025, down from 58% a year earlier[26]. Likewise, Bergen’s sale-to-list ratio in 2025 is roughly 101%, down a bit from the 102–103% of the frenzy years[27]. In practical terms, this means sellers still have some pricing power – well-priced homes can attract multiple bids – but buyers are regaining the ability to negotiate on some listings, especially those that are overpriced or less competitive. In fact, price reductions are becoming more common: about 19% of listings have had a price cut in 2025, up from 17% in 2024[28]. That reflects that while demand is still out there, buyers are less willing (or able) to chase prices ever-upward, so sellers must be more realistic. Overall, the market in late 2025 can be described as slightly in favor of sellers but moving toward balance – a far cry from the feeding frenzy of 2021.
Outlook: What’s Next for Bergen County Housing?
Looking ahead, Bergen County’s single-family market is expected to remain resilient but with more measured behavior. Most experts foresee a moderation in trends – neither a continued skyrocket in prices nor a crash, but a gradual normalization. Below we break down the forecast for the short, medium, and longer term:
Next 1 Year (Through 2026)
In the next year, the consensus is for modest price growth and slightly improving inventory as the market continues stabilizing. After the 2020–2022 boom, the market is now essentially plateauing at high price levels. Industry analysts predict home values will rise on the order of 2–4% in the coming year, in line with income growth and avoiding another bubble[29]. Indeed, “healthy, sustainable growth rather than unsustainable double-digit increases” is anticipated[29]. With the median already around $800K+, that forecasted growth would put Bergen’s median single-family price roughly in the mid-$800Ks by late 2026.
Several factors will influence 2026:
Mortgage Rates: High rates have been the biggest damper on sales. If inflation continues to ease, many economists expect mortgage rates could dip slightly in 2024–2025, perhaps into the mid-6% or low-6% range by 2026[30]. Even a one-point drop in interest rates would revive some pent-up demand (as more buyers could qualify for loans). Conversely, if rates stay ~7% or tick higher, expect sales to remain sluggish. The baseline view is rates stabilize around 6–7% over the next year[30] – not enough to juice another boom, but hopefully enough to bring some buyers back into the market.
Inventory and New Listings: Don’t expect a flood of new supply in one year. Most existing owners with low mortgage rates will continue to stay put unless life events force a move. New construction of single-family homes in Bergen is constrained (limited land and strict zoning), so it won’t significantly boost inventory in the short run. That said, inventory is likely to inch up further in 2026 – perhaps through more days on market (homes not selling as instantly) and some increase in listings as the market balance improves. We’ve already seen a ~10% year-over-year inventory expansion in NJ[31]. Buyers in 2026 should have a bit more selection than in 2023, but it will still be below long-term norms.
Sales Volume: With slightly better inventory and potentially marginally lower rates, 2026 could see sales levels improve off the extreme lows of 2023-24. We might see transaction counts rise modestly (perhaps on the order of +5–10%). However, unless rates fall more substantially, sales will likely remain below the 2015–2019 averages. In other words, 2026 will still be a relatively low volume year, but directionally improving. Many buyers and sellers remain in a stalemate: buyers are hoping prices or rates come down, while sellers don’t want to budge on price and aren’t under pressure to sell. That dynamic likely continues into 2026, keeping sales volume moderate.
Overall, for the next year the market is expected to “continue moderating rather than shifting dramatically”[32]. Prices should hold or rise slightly, not fall, because demand still outstrips supply (albeit less severely). But buyers will gain negotiating power compared to the height of the frenzy. Think of 2026 as a year where the market further normalizes: single-digit price appreciation, fewer bidding wars (but still some in hot areas), and a slow increase in inventory and days on market. Barring an economic shock, a severe price correction is not anticipated within the year – low supply provides a floor under prices.
Two-Year Outlook (2027)
By around 2027, we expect the trends of gradual rebalancing to continue. If 2026 is mildly better for buyers, 2027 could be the year the market finally reaches a true equilibrium – or at least a balanced market is in sight. Here’s what might characterize the two-year horizon:
Prices: Cumulative appreciation over two years might be on the order of ~5%–8% (again assuming ~3% per year). So by 2027, Bergen’s median sale price could be approaching or just over $900K. Importantly, any price gains will likely be uneven. Higher-priced submarkets (the luxury towns that saw huge run-ups) may see flatter growth as they approach affordability ceilings[33]. Already we see some resistance at the top end – luxury listings taking longer and occasional price cuts. Meanwhile, more affordable segments (for Bergen that might mean the $500K–$800K range) could still appreciate a bit faster due to strong demand from families targeting entry points into the county. Overall, expect continued moderate growth in prices, assuming the economy stays healthy. If a recession hits in this window (a possibility by 2027, given economic cycles), home values might stagnate for a period, but a severe downturn seems unlikely absent a massive surge in supply or distress sales.
Interest Rates & Demand: By 2027, many forecasts have mortgage rates settling in a historical normal range (perhaps ~5–6%) if inflation is under control[30]. This would be a boon to buyer affordability and likely unleash some of the demand that’s been sitting on the sidelines. We could see a resurgence of move-up buyers – those who wanted to sell and buy another home but paused due to high rates – once financing costs ease a bit. That could simultaneously boost sales and new listings (as those buyers list their current homes). In essence, 2027 might mark a return to a more fluid market where people feel comfortable trading homes again, after the rate shocks of 2022-2023.
Inventory: With more move-ups and possibly more new construction (we’ll likely see more townhome/condo developments and the occasional new subdivision or teardown-rebuilds in Bergen), the inventory could improve to perhaps 4–5 months’ supply statewide (up from 3 months now)[31]. For single-family homes in Bergen, inventory might still be below ideal, but better than the crisis lows. Demographics will start to play a role too – by the late 2020s, more Baby Boomers may downsize or relocate, gradually freeing up some single-family homes for the next generation. Bergen’s population is older on average, so we anticipate some increase in resale supply as the decade progresses.
In summary, by 2027 we foresee a more balanced market: prices rising at a sustainable pace, not a frenzy; buyers having more choice and a bit more leverage; and sales volumes closer to normal. That said, Bergen County is likely to remain a high-demand area (top schools, proximity to NYC, etc.), so don’t expect a buyer’s market glut – desirable homes will still sell, just with a more rational process. The phrase “transitioning seller’s market gradually becoming balanced” (as used in recent reports) will likely define the next two years[34]. Sellers should adjust expectations (the days of naming any price and getting it are over), and buyers should still budget for prices modestly increasing rather than dropping.
Five-Year Outlook (2030)
Projecting five years out to 2030, several macro trends and unknowns come into play. Assuming no major shocks, the baseline outlook for 5 years is cautiously optimistic: continued population and income growth in the region should support housing demand, while constraints on supply remain – meaning home prices will probably be higher in 2030 than in 2025, but the growth curve should flatten relative to the pandemic spike.
Key points for 2030:
Price Levels: Using the 2–4% annual appreciation range forecasted by many analysts[29][35], by 2030 home prices in Bergen might be roughly 10–20% above today’s values. That would put the median single-family price somewhere around $950K–$1M (in 2030 dollars). It’s worth noting that after the last big housing boom (2000s), NJ home prices were essentially flat for nearly a decade (2007–2016) before rising again. This time, we might not see a flatline but rather slow growth, given the supply-demand imbalance. Significant price declines are not expected unless something fundamental changes, because the housing shortage is real – as one report noted, “low inventory will prevent any significant declines” in price despite higher rates[36]. However, the era of double-digit annual gains is almost certainly behind us for now. By late in this decade, prices will be reaching pain points even for affluent buyers, likely leading to very tepid increases and possibly some local price stagnation in overheated submarkets.
Inventory and New Construction: Over a five-year span, we may finally see more substantial response on the supply side. New construction is projected to ramp up, particularly in the form of multi-family (condos, townhomes) and 55+ communities[37]. While these aren’t single-family homes, they do provide alternatives that might slightly reduce pressure on the single-family market (for example, empty nesters moving to 55+ communities, freeing up their houses). Bergen is largely built-out, but towns may start to adapt zoning to allow more infill development or smaller homes to address affordability. We likely will also see technology and market changes (e.g. more institutional investors building single-family rentals elsewhere) but in North Jersey, limited land is the main cap on new SF supply. By 2030, inventory should be meaningfully improved from the ultra-low 2020s level – perhaps not back to 2015 levels, but enough that buyers don’t face such fierce competition. We might finally return to that 5–6 months of supply equilibrium by the end of the decade, barring any renewed surge in demand.
Market Dynamics: If the 2020s began with a buying frenzy, the late 2020s could mark the return of a more traditional market cycle. There may be an economic slowdown at some point (some experts think a mild recession in the next few years could happen as the Fed tightens policy, etc.), which could momentarily slow sales and level off prices. Yet housing tends to weather recessions relatively well unless driven by a financial crisis (and mortgage lending standards have been much stricter this cycle). So any dip in late-2020s would likely be modest. By 2030, Millennials – the largest buyer cohort – will be in their late 30s to mid-40s, presumably in or settled into their long-term homes. The generation behind them (Gen Z) is smaller, which could slightly soften demand growth compared to the past 5 years when millennial demand was peaking. This demographic effect might contribute to the market becoming more balanced: essentially, the wave of buyers will stabilize.
In sum, five years out we expect moderate, sustained growth in Bergen’s housing market – no crash, but no boom. Houses will almost certainly cost more in 2030 than now (simply due to inflation and limited supply), but the rate of increase should be far more manageable for buyers. The market should also be less volatile: buyers may finally have a bit of leverage in negotiations if inventory hits a truly balanced point. For sellers, homes will still appreciate, just not at the heady pace of 2020–2022. Realistic pricing and proper home preparation will be crucial as buyers gain comparative shopping power. Housing will remain a solid long-term investment in Bergen County, but expect annual appreciation closer to historical norms (perhaps 3%/yr on average over this period) rather than the rollercoaster of recent years.
Ten-Year Outlook (2035)
Looking a decade ahead to 2035 is admittedly speculative, but we can extrapolate current trends and demographic projections:
Home Prices: By 2035, today’s recent purchasers will be a decade into their mortgages. It’s very likely home values will be higher – perhaps significantly – given the combination of normal appreciation and any inflation over ten years. If we assume ~3% annual growth, a home worth $800K today could be around $1.08 million in 2035 (nominal dollars). So breaking the $1 million median price mark for Bergen’s single-family homes is quite plausible within 10 years if current trajectories hold. That said, real (inflation-adjusted) growth might be more modest. The market may also see periods of plateau within that decade – it wouldn’t be surprising if there were a couple of flat or even slight down years mixed in, depending on economic cycles. But over 10 years, real estate in a supply-constrained, high-demand area tends to trend upward. Unless there is a major exodus from the region or a policy shift that suddenly creates a lot of housing, the long-term pressure is upward on prices.
Supply/Demand Fundamentals: By 2035, we’ll see more impact from generational turnover. Many Baby Boomers will be in their 80s and beyond, which likely means a larger wave of homes hitting the market via estate sales or downsizing. This could actually be a healthy infusion of supply in the 2030s, potentially tempering price growth. On the demand side, the population of the NYC metro is expected to keep growing, though slower than before. Remote work trends could also evolve – if by 2035 a large share of jobs allow remote or hybrid work, some buyers may choose to live in cheaper areas, which could reduce pressure on suburbs like Bergen. However, Bergen’s proximity to New York City and its enduring appeal (schools, community, etc.) mean it will likely remain highly desirable. The mix of buyers may tilt – e.g., more international buyers or people relocating from denser urban areas might be a factor if local younger populations shrink.
Market Conditions: In a decade’s time, the housing market might finally cycle into a buyer’s market for a while – something we really haven’t seen in Bergen since around 2011-2012. If the late 2030s see excess inventory from boomer sales and a smaller pool of young families (or higher interest rates again), there could be a period where buyers have the upper hand and price gains pause. It’s worth noting that even when prices nationally fell in the late 2000s, Bergen County’s drop was less severe and values recovered strongly. So while short-term corrections are possible, the long-term trajectory is upward. Homeownership in Bergen has proven to be a great long-term investment historically, and that’s unlikely to change by 2035.
In summary, ten years out we expect Bergen County’s single-family housing to be more balanced and stable, but also more expensive. The frantic extremes of the early 2020s will be a memory; the market will have passed through its rapid cycle and entered a more mature phase. Price growth should average out to something sustainable, in line with economic fundamentals. Buyers in 2035 may finally find a range of options and a bit less competition, especially as new housing options (townhomes, etc.) diversify the market. However, they’ll also be facing prices that, while maybe not soaring year-to-year, are nonetheless high in absolute terms (a reflection of Bergen County’s high-value status). Sellers in 2035 will likely still see appreciation over their purchase price, but they’ll need to cater to a possibly more selective buyer pool.
Bottom Line: Bergen County’s single-family housing market has been on a wild ride – from a balanced market in the mid-2010s to a frenzied boom in 2020-2021, and now settling into a new normal. Inventory reached historic lows, driving prices to record highs, while sales volume fell because so few people are willing or able to trade in this climate. The data shows a market still tilted toward sellers, yet gradually easing off its peak intensity[23][28]. Going forward, experts predict neither a crash nor a continued meteoric rise, but a period of moderation: slower price growth (2–4%/yr)[29], a bit more inventory each year, and longer selling times, moving us toward balance. If you’re a homeowner, your equity gains will likely grow more gradually now. If you’re a buyer, patience may be rewarded as buying conditions improve slightly – but waiting for prices to fall significantly could be futile given the persistent supply shortage. In any case, Bergen County remains a robust housing market. Its “stability and resilience” have been proven in the face of pandemic upheaval[38], and over the next 1, 2, 5, and 10 years we expect it to remain one of the strongest (if pricey) real estate markets in New Jersey, with a trajectory of measured, healthy growth rather than rollercoaster swings.
Sources: The analysis above is based on NJMLS and county data from 2015–2025 (sales volumes, prices, listings, etc.) and commentary from market reports[39][23]. These include the Greater Bergen Realtors and NJMLS statistics, as well as expert forecasts for New Jersey’s housing market[29][35]. All data points and direct quotes are cited from these sources.